hashing
I was just watching a YouTube video of a bunch of guys dancing around in their underwear and what appear to be army-surplus cargo vests, and realized that they were probably hoping to hit it big as the next Internet celebrities or, at the very least, yet another particularly annoying meme.
That reminded me of an overarching ambition once suffered by a friend of mine, which generally involved an easy road to fame and fortune by putting me on there. I managed to talk him out of it by reminding him once again what it was like to listen to me talk. And talk. And talk. And talk. Add in to that the fact that I'm not at all photo- or telegenic, and you've got the makings of an Internet celebrity--but not the good kind.
His idea involved putting me in front of a webcam, giving me a topic, and turning me loose. For some reason, I feel as though these days, I have a lot to say that might be better communicated through a few hours of verbal rambling rather than through a blog post, but A) I have no camera; and B) I have shame. I am therefore probably going to start speaking out loud right now and doing my best to transcribe what I say verbatim.
Okay, so, um, hi. [giggles] My name is Jim and, uh, welcome! To, uh...whatever the hell this is. [giggle] I just kind of figured I might as well, you know, uh, like start sharing my thoughts with, you know, you-all. So, here I am! Heh. Heh.
So, heh, okay. See, I've been thinking a lot lately about stuff. And, uh, this is more or less, uh, typical. There's a big old presidential 'lection goin' on and, uh, also we have like a bunch of hurricanes going on. Or, well, okay, not so much hurricanes as a lot of tropical disturbances, and obviously, uh, I live in Florida, I don't think I told you that yet, so you know, clearly it's kind of important that I pay attention to, uh, hurricanes. Tropical disturbances, yeah. And of course, you know, right around this time a-year, you get to be sort of an expert, you know, in hurricane tracking and, uh, storm forecasting and stuff like that. You learn about the various models that they use to predict the behavior of these massive, massive systems which incorporate a lot of chaos and stuff. They're very chaotic systems. And, you know, as I go along and watch all these storms form and spin off on their various tracks, uh... [pause] ...well, you get to thinking--or, well, I get to thinking at least, I do that kind of thing from time to time. I don't know if you do, but I do.
Anyway, where was I? Oh yeah, the, uh, the presidential election. So obviously, there's a whole lotta uncertainty type thing, uh, goin' on there. There's a big giant sort of industry that's built on, you know, predicting the behavior of a huge mass of voters, which I find interesting because, like, the poll results--and that, that's what, you know, what I mean by the whole predicting-voters thing--anyway, poll results tend to be very homogeneous representations of very heterogeneous groups of people, so, you know, they're just numbers that, you know, like--they, they, they seem to assume this-this sort of behavior can be, you know, quantified with very little context. I've been wondering if, you know, like maybe, like, that's why they don't work as well as they, like...should? So obviously this is, uh, kind of, uh, kind of problematic.
What has this got to do with, uh, hurricanes? Well. [pause] See, the thing is that I keep wondering about whether one method could somehow be applied to the other. I, I know that that doesn't sound very, uh, kosher. The most obvious reason, really, would be that, you know, hurricanes are discrete events, like, you know when one is happening when it's happening and you can look at the weather and go, okay well the, you know, the outflow from this system here is affecting this system here, and there's all this shear over here and the convection is all exposed and stuff so this thing here will probably happen. You really can't, you know, say that about human-directed events, because those sort of have a really fucking, you know, irritating tendency to require, you know, uh, sort of, uh, historical perspective as well as, uh, some very deep study of not only that, that event but also, you know, the events leading up to and affecting it. They're like hurricanes in that way, you know, they don't really occur in isolation at all, but, uh, wait. Oh, right. So human events aren't quite as simple to, uh, point out that this is a, uh, a seminal moment in history when really, you know, five or ten or fifty years from now, you know, nobody might give so much of a shit about it. Obviously, there are exceptions, but, uh...well, like Pepsi Clear or Crystal Pepsi or whatever the fuck that thing was, people thought it was gonna be basically a new, you know, totally new paradigm in, in, well, in soft drinks, but, uh, I think we all know, you know, what happened to that.
So basically... [pause] Like...the defining characteristic held in common by hurricanes and human societies is, uh, is-are-is, is, uh, is that--that they're both unpredictable in a very fundamental respect. They're heavily contextual, understanding the single event itself really, you know, depends on understanding all the millions of tiny little factors and hundreds of big assed factors that go into bringing them about.
So, the point, the point that I was trying to basically make was, was that although y-yes, superficially both phenomena--that is to say, you know, uh, th-the-the, uh, the, th-th-both-both phenomena being hurricanes--or at least big tropical storm systems, yeah--and, uh, human events in general--both of these phenomena would seem to be, you know, apples and oranges. One's discrete and easily measured and pointed out, the other's totally messy and sloppy and kind of, just, uh, you know, just kind of, uh, gross. Yeah. Also, uh, arbitrary. One of the more interesting things about history is a lot of it is a matter of, uh, interpretation. You know, there's, this, this historian who said Henry VIII was a, uh, a genius for establishing the, uh, the, uh, the, uh, the-the C of E while another historian is all, you know, ew he was drunk and fat and yucky and selfish and caused a lot of, you know, damage to the English people by, uh, decoupling them from the Roman Catholic Church and a, uh, a central ecclesiastical authority, which, I guess, could be argued by yet another historian as being a good thing for, uh, England for, uh, wholly different reasons than the first.
I don't actually know if that's actually a, you know, an actual debate going on or anything like that. It's straight from my, uh, my ass, fresh, hot, and steaming, uh, for you. [giggles]
So, uh... [pause] So human history, I guess, could be said to be, you know, a large piece of, uh, like, arbitrariness. Although there certainly seems to be, uh, a consensus on the, the delineation of, of historical eras, that just mostly strikes me as, you know, a, uh, I guess, uh, you could call it like a mnemonic device? That's the impression that comes across sometimes, in like history class, when you're taught about this Age and that Age and the other Age, you come to think of human history as being an, an orderly, linear process from one clearly-defined period to the next when that's not at all the case. It's just a, a sort of way of, uh, classifying groups of, uh, contemporaneous related events in ways that make it easier to remember. Like, like we know the Stone Age has, has nothing to do with the Information Age, right? They're-they're separated by thousands of years, and, uh, you know, we all know they're not, like, side-by-side, temp-temp-historically speaking, but, uh, why, why not? A lot of our tech really, really, it really does, uh, depend a lot on the, the silicon and stuff, which is the, uh, the primary component of most stones if I, if I remember correctly. Or the, the Copper Age and you look at all our wires and stuff and a lot of those are made of copper. So really those, those periods of human history are not, in my head at least, it's kind of weird, they aren't at all that separate, in my head. There's sort of a linkage kind of thing happening there, uh, for me.
So that's where it seems to, uh, seems to fall down, I guess. You can tell one hurricane from another, but at a fundamental level, events in history aren't so easy to distinguish.
And then, uh, you know, uh, no, I have to backtrack on that one, because, obviously, you know, the more I think about it, and that's really, really, it's, uh, that's kind of, uh, the point of this whole, whole thing you're watching here is that I'm just thinking out loud and just sort of going on and on. But, uh, anyway, uh, so, you know, it's kind of interesting how, uh...No, right.
Well, uh, hmm. I guess what I am, at the middle of it all, uh, I guess, umm, is would it really be all that, you know, difficult applying forecast modeling principles to human history in order to, uh, predict where things may be going in the end? The interesting thing is that a lot of model-based forecasts really rely on, you know, past experiences. Like, hurricane forecasts tend to, uh, take previous instances of hurricanes that, uh, show similar behavior under somewhat similar circumstances, and then not only do they, uh, they-they take that, they also look at other pertinent, uh, well, uh, permin--per--meteorological phenomena--like high-pressure ridges or upper-atmosphere shearing--that have shown to have had, uh, uh, specific effects on a hurricane before and, and they take those things into account as well as those previous, these prior hurricanes that were similar and they combine it all into, uh, well, I guess, uh, you could say they sort of, uh, average it out into sort of an, uh, a, uh, a, a best-fit line that, that they think falls right into the middle of the, uh, the zone of probability as far as the potential, the hurricane's potential behavior is concerned.
So, why can't we do that to human history, you know? That's what I'm wondering. The, uh, the obvious answer to that question, I guess, would probably be that it's, uh, it's not like specific events keep repeating themselves predictably so that we can take the baseline and apply the, the various permutations dictated by the course of ancillary events while knowing that the basic phenomenon is one that's definitely occurred before and will occur again, like the essential hurricane. There is no, really, no, no "essential" human event.
Or, uh, or isn't there? Heh, uh. Perhaps--maybe--perhaps, perhaps events can be, be boiled down to the, uh, well, uh, I guess, uh, you could call it the, uh, the lowest common denominators? Like, uh, this category concerns politically significant marriages like John and Cindy McCain and that category concerns territorial conflict like Russia and Georgia and this category concerns resource depletion like, uh, like depending on foreign oil, and that category concerns, uh, eruptions of religious belief of one kind or another, like, uh, like, like the, uh, the evangelicals, and, uh, this category concerns the, the impetus for local or global hegemony of some kind and, you know, stuff like that. So much, though, so, so, depends on, uh, individual human interaction, though, so, so that in turn depends on various aspects of human personality, which sort of, uh, wrinkles up the issue a bit. But the truth is, although we, uh, we do seem to place a premium on being individuals and that although, that, that is true on a certain level--the, the combination of events over the course of individual lives can never be precisely duplicated among each other, between, uh, between each life--there do seem to be, uh, does seem to be a certain amount of similarity in, uh, personality aspects. We see this in various psychological tests and, and things like that, and there's like a whole industry based on the whole idea that, uh, people are essentially the same with minor variations.
Just as, you know, hurricanes are essentially the same with minor variations. So, uh, if-if we take that understanding of the basic nature of personality and, uh, uh, find some way to take that to a larger level, of treating humanity as a whole, or, or at least just, you know, just the United States in the case of this year's election, as a single, a single orga-organism of some sort that behaves according to fixed, fund-uh, fund-uh, well, fixed rules depending on the context for each one of its, uh, its constituent parts, it doesn't seem to be too, uh, far-fetched to contemplate the future within a cone of possibility.
You know?
That reminded me of an overarching ambition once suffered by a friend of mine, which generally involved an easy road to fame and fortune by putting me on there. I managed to talk him out of it by reminding him once again what it was like to listen to me talk. And talk. And talk. And talk. Add in to that the fact that I'm not at all photo- or telegenic, and you've got the makings of an Internet celebrity--but not the good kind.
His idea involved putting me in front of a webcam, giving me a topic, and turning me loose. For some reason, I feel as though these days, I have a lot to say that might be better communicated through a few hours of verbal rambling rather than through a blog post, but A) I have no camera; and B) I have shame. I am therefore probably going to start speaking out loud right now and doing my best to transcribe what I say verbatim.
Okay, so, um, hi. [giggles] My name is Jim and, uh, welcome! To, uh...whatever the hell this is. [giggle] I just kind of figured I might as well, you know, uh, like start sharing my thoughts with, you know, you-all. So, here I am! Heh. Heh.
So, heh, okay. See, I've been thinking a lot lately about stuff. And, uh, this is more or less, uh, typical. There's a big old presidential 'lection goin' on and, uh, also we have like a bunch of hurricanes going on. Or, well, okay, not so much hurricanes as a lot of tropical disturbances, and obviously, uh, I live in Florida, I don't think I told you that yet, so you know, clearly it's kind of important that I pay attention to, uh, hurricanes. Tropical disturbances, yeah. And of course, you know, right around this time a-year, you get to be sort of an expert, you know, in hurricane tracking and, uh, storm forecasting and stuff like that. You learn about the various models that they use to predict the behavior of these massive, massive systems which incorporate a lot of chaos and stuff. They're very chaotic systems. And, you know, as I go along and watch all these storms form and spin off on their various tracks, uh... [pause] ...well, you get to thinking--or, well, I get to thinking at least, I do that kind of thing from time to time. I don't know if you do, but I do.
Anyway, where was I? Oh yeah, the, uh, the presidential election. So obviously, there's a whole lotta uncertainty type thing, uh, goin' on there. There's a big giant sort of industry that's built on, you know, predicting the behavior of a huge mass of voters, which I find interesting because, like, the poll results--and that, that's what, you know, what I mean by the whole predicting-voters thing--anyway, poll results tend to be very homogeneous representations of very heterogeneous groups of people, so, you know, they're just numbers that, you know, like--they, they, they seem to assume this-this sort of behavior can be, you know, quantified with very little context. I've been wondering if, you know, like maybe, like, that's why they don't work as well as they, like...should? So obviously this is, uh, kind of, uh, kind of problematic.
What has this got to do with, uh, hurricanes? Well. [pause] See, the thing is that I keep wondering about whether one method could somehow be applied to the other. I, I know that that doesn't sound very, uh, kosher. The most obvious reason, really, would be that, you know, hurricanes are discrete events, like, you know when one is happening when it's happening and you can look at the weather and go, okay well the, you know, the outflow from this system here is affecting this system here, and there's all this shear over here and the convection is all exposed and stuff so this thing here will probably happen. You really can't, you know, say that about human-directed events, because those sort of have a really fucking, you know, irritating tendency to require, you know, uh, sort of, uh, historical perspective as well as, uh, some very deep study of not only that, that event but also, you know, the events leading up to and affecting it. They're like hurricanes in that way, you know, they don't really occur in isolation at all, but, uh, wait. Oh, right. So human events aren't quite as simple to, uh, point out that this is a, uh, a seminal moment in history when really, you know, five or ten or fifty years from now, you know, nobody might give so much of a shit about it. Obviously, there are exceptions, but, uh...well, like Pepsi Clear or Crystal Pepsi or whatever the fuck that thing was, people thought it was gonna be basically a new, you know, totally new paradigm in, in, well, in soft drinks, but, uh, I think we all know, you know, what happened to that.
So basically... [pause] Like...the defining characteristic held in common by hurricanes and human societies is, uh, is-are-is, is, uh, is that--that they're both unpredictable in a very fundamental respect. They're heavily contextual, understanding the single event itself really, you know, depends on understanding all the millions of tiny little factors and hundreds of big assed factors that go into bringing them about.
So, the point, the point that I was trying to basically make was, was that although y-yes, superficially both phenomena--that is to say, you know, uh, th-the-the, uh, the, th-th-both-both phenomena being hurricanes--or at least big tropical storm systems, yeah--and, uh, human events in general--both of these phenomena would seem to be, you know, apples and oranges. One's discrete and easily measured and pointed out, the other's totally messy and sloppy and kind of, just, uh, you know, just kind of, uh, gross. Yeah. Also, uh, arbitrary. One of the more interesting things about history is a lot of it is a matter of, uh, interpretation. You know, there's, this, this historian who said Henry VIII was a, uh, a genius for establishing the, uh, the, uh, the, uh, the-the C of E while another historian is all, you know, ew he was drunk and fat and yucky and selfish and caused a lot of, you know, damage to the English people by, uh, decoupling them from the Roman Catholic Church and a, uh, a central ecclesiastical authority, which, I guess, could be argued by yet another historian as being a good thing for, uh, England for, uh, wholly different reasons than the first.
I don't actually know if that's actually a, you know, an actual debate going on or anything like that. It's straight from my, uh, my ass, fresh, hot, and steaming, uh, for you. [giggles]
So, uh... [pause] So human history, I guess, could be said to be, you know, a large piece of, uh, like, arbitrariness. Although there certainly seems to be, uh, a consensus on the, the delineation of, of historical eras, that just mostly strikes me as, you know, a, uh, I guess, uh, you could call it like a mnemonic device? That's the impression that comes across sometimes, in like history class, when you're taught about this Age and that Age and the other Age, you come to think of human history as being an, an orderly, linear process from one clearly-defined period to the next when that's not at all the case. It's just a, a sort of way of, uh, classifying groups of, uh, contemporaneous related events in ways that make it easier to remember. Like, like we know the Stone Age has, has nothing to do with the Information Age, right? They're-they're separated by thousands of years, and, uh, you know, we all know they're not, like, side-by-side, temp-temp-historically speaking, but, uh, why, why not? A lot of our tech really, really, it really does, uh, depend a lot on the, the silicon and stuff, which is the, uh, the primary component of most stones if I, if I remember correctly. Or the, the Copper Age and you look at all our wires and stuff and a lot of those are made of copper. So really those, those periods of human history are not, in my head at least, it's kind of weird, they aren't at all that separate, in my head. There's sort of a linkage kind of thing happening there, uh, for me.
So that's where it seems to, uh, seems to fall down, I guess. You can tell one hurricane from another, but at a fundamental level, events in history aren't so easy to distinguish.
And then, uh, you know, uh, no, I have to backtrack on that one, because, obviously, you know, the more I think about it, and that's really, really, it's, uh, that's kind of, uh, the point of this whole, whole thing you're watching here is that I'm just thinking out loud and just sort of going on and on. But, uh, anyway, uh, so, you know, it's kind of interesting how, uh...No, right.
Well, uh, hmm. I guess what I am, at the middle of it all, uh, I guess, umm, is would it really be all that, you know, difficult applying forecast modeling principles to human history in order to, uh, predict where things may be going in the end? The interesting thing is that a lot of model-based forecasts really rely on, you know, past experiences. Like, hurricane forecasts tend to, uh, take previous instances of hurricanes that, uh, show similar behavior under somewhat similar circumstances, and then not only do they, uh, they-they take that, they also look at other pertinent, uh, well, uh, permin--per--meteorological phenomena--like high-pressure ridges or upper-atmosphere shearing--that have shown to have had, uh, uh, specific effects on a hurricane before and, and they take those things into account as well as those previous, these prior hurricanes that were similar and they combine it all into, uh, well, I guess, uh, you could say they sort of, uh, average it out into sort of an, uh, a, uh, a, a best-fit line that, that they think falls right into the middle of the, uh, the zone of probability as far as the potential, the hurricane's potential behavior is concerned.
So, why can't we do that to human history, you know? That's what I'm wondering. The, uh, the obvious answer to that question, I guess, would probably be that it's, uh, it's not like specific events keep repeating themselves predictably so that we can take the baseline and apply the, the various permutations dictated by the course of ancillary events while knowing that the basic phenomenon is one that's definitely occurred before and will occur again, like the essential hurricane. There is no, really, no, no "essential" human event.
Or, uh, or isn't there? Heh, uh. Perhaps--maybe--perhaps, perhaps events can be, be boiled down to the, uh, well, uh, I guess, uh, you could call it the, uh, the lowest common denominators? Like, uh, this category concerns politically significant marriages like John and Cindy McCain and that category concerns territorial conflict like Russia and Georgia and this category concerns resource depletion like, uh, like depending on foreign oil, and that category concerns, uh, eruptions of religious belief of one kind or another, like, uh, like, like the, uh, the evangelicals, and, uh, this category concerns the, the impetus for local or global hegemony of some kind and, you know, stuff like that. So much, though, so, so, depends on, uh, individual human interaction, though, so, so that in turn depends on various aspects of human personality, which sort of, uh, wrinkles up the issue a bit. But the truth is, although we, uh, we do seem to place a premium on being individuals and that although, that, that is true on a certain level--the, the combination of events over the course of individual lives can never be precisely duplicated among each other, between, uh, between each life--there do seem to be, uh, does seem to be a certain amount of similarity in, uh, personality aspects. We see this in various psychological tests and, and things like that, and there's like a whole industry based on the whole idea that, uh, people are essentially the same with minor variations.
Just as, you know, hurricanes are essentially the same with minor variations. So, uh, if-if we take that understanding of the basic nature of personality and, uh, uh, find some way to take that to a larger level, of treating humanity as a whole, or, or at least just, you know, just the United States in the case of this year's election, as a single, a single orga-organism of some sort that behaves according to fixed, fund-uh, fund-uh, well, fixed rules depending on the context for each one of its, uh, its constituent parts, it doesn't seem to be too, uh, far-fetched to contemplate the future within a cone of possibility.
You know?





